NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

What this number means

NFIB publishes the Small Business Optimism Index on the second Tuesday of each month, based on a survey of ~620 small-business owners. The index combines 10 components — plans to hire, capex plans, inventory, expectations, sales, earnings, and others — with the long-run average set at 100.

A reading below 95 indicates the small-business economy is materially weaker than its long-run norm. The current 92.4 is firmly in that territory; the index has been below 100 for 28 consecutive months — the longest stretch since the index began in 1986.

What's dragging it down right now

Inflation has dropped from #1 concern to #2, replaced by taxes and labor quality. The "earnings trend" component sits at −24, meaning a quarter more owners report deteriorating profits than improving. Hiring intent remains positive but capex plans are weak.